Ace

Simulation Desk

Computer simulations look for mispriced bets. Everything here is paper trading: no real money.

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Goal: 300 settled trades

Possible edges

Hide "too good to be true" picks Show games already started

Paper trades

Every pick above is automatically "bet" with pretend money: $100 each, at the typical price across books, placed before the game starts and settled on the real result. Click any trade for its full detail. The Performance tab tracks whether results match what the simulation expected.

Download all trades (CSV) · placed times are local · results settle automatically after the game ends

Is it working?

The paper trades above are only a handful of bets, so they would take months to prove anything. To find out faster, every prop the simulations price (over a hundred a day) is recorded before the game and graded on the real result. The question is simple: are the simulation's probabilities closer to the truth than the betting market's own?

Where is the simulation wrong? (diagnostics)

Game simulations

How to read this page

Paper tradeA pretend bet with fake money. It lets us test the simulations without risking anything.
EdgeHow much better the simulation thinks a bet is than its price suggests. A +3% edge means about $3 expected profit per $100, if the simulation is right.
Worst-case edgeThe same number after assuming the simulation is somewhat off. A pick is only shown if it is still positive here.
Market vs simulationThe betting market's chance of something happening (with the bookmaker's fee removed) versus the simulation's chance.
Why so few picks?Betting markets are usually priced well. When the simulations find nothing, that is the normal, honest answer, not a bug.
Too good to be trueVery large edges are almost always the model missing something (an injury, a role change), so they are flagged rather than trusted.

Update data & run tools

Everything updates automatically every 30 minutes, day and night, with no AI involved: simulations, new paper trades, and settling finished games. You can also run it by hand. Only one run can go at a time.

Odds API credit budget

Free

Refresh simulations. Re-runs every simulation on the data already downloaded, then settles finished trades and places new ones. No AI, no credits.

Fetching new prop lines (which spends Odds API credits) only happens automatically, on the credit budget above. There's no manual "spend credits now" button on this page.